
WTI edged higher as traders reassessed whether the US midterm election results would lead to a quick end to the Iran conflict. Trump reiterated that Iran could not pursue its nuclear programme without US approval, while reports of vessel incidents added to uncertainty about regional supply.
Uncertainty over the conflict and potential shipping disruptions supports crude prices, while the possibility of de-escalation limits gains. The competing risks are sustaining volatility in energy costs for feed and agricultural supply chains.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.