Oil prices extended gains in Asian trading after reported tanker incidents heightened concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East. Despite the rebound, Brent and WTI remained set for steep weekly losses as markets weighed whether US-Iran diplomacy could end the conflict and restore shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Threats to Hormuz shipping and uncertainty over a durable settlement support crude by raising the risk of constrained exports, even as hopes for de-escalation pressure prices lower.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.