
Veeries projects Brazilian ethanol production will rise 10% to 46.3 billion liters in 2027/28, while domestic consumption grows 6% to 41.2 billion liters. Record sugarcane crushing, rainfall-boosted yields and seven new corn-ethanol plants adding at least 2.5 billion liters are expected to push supply above demand and weigh on mill margins.
New corn-ethanol capacity should support corn demand, while the broader ethanol surplus may pressure ethanol prices and producers’ returns. The resulting price effect on feed commodities is indirect and likely limited.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.