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The U.S. ethanol sector recovered in the third quarter to about 85-90% of pre-COVID demand, with weekly production averaging 14.2 billion gallons annualized, 89% of the first quarter's level. Operating margins for a representative Iowa plant averaged $0.21 per gallon, up from break-even in the first quarter.
Recent policy steps include E15 sales moves, EPA plans to deny refinery blending exemptions, and Brazil's duty-free access for U.S. ethanol for 90 days.
Stronger ethanol output supports corn grind demand and DDGS supply, which tends to firm feed-grain prices. Policy support for blending keeps the outlook steadier into the fourth quarter.
mnbiofuels.orgLiliana TovarOct 13, 2020After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
