
Depressed edible oil prices are pushing Indian farmers to replace soybean and groundnut with maize grown for ethanol, according to a government official. India imports close to 60% of its edible oil needs, and the shift could cut domestic oilseed output further.
A smaller Indian oilseed crop would lift import demand for soybean and vegetable oils, supporting prices for soybean oil and soybeans while biofuel policy shifts acreage toward corn.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.