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Market participants are comparing the soy crush expansion to the early-2000s ethanol boom. Crush capacity has grown about 20% since 2021/22, but the outlook depends on finalizing biofuel policy, the 45Z tax credit and import feedstock rules.
If biofuel policy holds, rising soybean oil demand could lift soybean prices, which are currently below production costs.
profarmer.comDebbie CarlsonFeb 18, 2026After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
