Oil rebounds after plunging more than 8% the previous day… WTI up 2.7%, Brent up 3.9%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2024Oil gains more than $2 after settlement on reports Iran preparing Israel attack+4.5%
• Jun 21, 2019Oil rises, bringing rally to more than 9% this week+4.3%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+0.8%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+9.6%
• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.2%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2024Oil gains more than $2 after settlement on reports Iran preparing Israel attack+3.9%
• Jun 21, 2019Oil rises, bringing rally to more than 9% this week+2.7%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+1.5%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+10.8%
• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.8%