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A Serasa Experian study estimates a severe El Niño could remove 17.6 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans, about 10% of output, compared with a neutral climate. The potential value at risk is R$33 billion.
The study uses the 2023/24 El Niño season as its base.
A loss of this size would cut Brazil's export supply, the world's largest, and support soybean, meal and oil prices. The figure is a scenario estimate, not a forecast, so the price impact is meaningful but not immediate.
noticiasagricolas.com.brEricson Cunha, Daniel OliviNov 5, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
