
The dollar index rose slightly on Thursday as crude prices rebounded about 2% after an 8% plunge the prior session. Investors awaited Friday's payrolls report after weekly jobless claims fell to 189,000, and US stocks fell sharply on tech sector weakness.
Oil rebounding after a steep drop shows the Iran war premium is still volatile, which feeds through to diesel, fertilizer and freight costs for feed producers. A stronger dollar also pressures export-priced grain and meal.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.