Rabobank analysis notes the real fell 9.21% last week, the worst performance among 24 emerging currencies, and it keeps a year-end forecast of R$5.35 per dollar. Brazilian IGP-M rose 1.47% in October, and the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%-4.00% while signaling a possible December hike.
A weaker real raises Brazil's import costs for fertilizers and feed inputs, while higher rates and Fed hike risk tighten credit conditions for producers and buyers.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.