
October Class IV milk prices strengthened while Class III prices fell further, widening the Class III-IV gap to $5.38 per cwt. Class II prices rebounded for the first time in three months.
In September, the Dairy Margin Coverage margin reached $8.35 per cwt on the strongest feed costs of 2026 so far, and US milk production rose 2.6% year over year.
Weaker Class III prices reflect cheese and whey demand softness and rising milk supply, which can weigh on dairy-sector feed purchasing. Higher feed costs are squeezing producer margins even as USDA data points to larger corn yields.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.