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The Philippine Department of Agriculture expects El Niño to hit rice production more severely in the first half of 2027. Local palay output is projected to fall 5% to 18.67 million tonnes from 2025 levels, and this year's output could drop below 18 million tonnes for the first time since 2012.
A sharp fall in Philippine output increases import demand from Vietnam and other exporters, supporting regional rice prices. Higher fertilizer and fuel costs are also cutting planted area.
business.inquirer.netJordeene B. LagareNov 4, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
