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Vietnam's 5% broken rice was offered at $410-$415 per ton, up from $405-$415 a week earlier, on El Niño concerns. Thai 5% broken rose to $480-$500 and African demand reportedly fell 30% as buyers shifted to Indian rice.
Higher Asian export quotes and possible stockpiling support prices, but demand switching to cheaper Indian rice caps the rally.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.