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Vietnam's 5% broken rice rose to $410-$415 per ton on El Niño worries, while Thai quotes climbed to $480-$500 and some buyers switched to cheaper Indian varieties priced around $337-$342. Concerns about hotter, drier conditions could trigger stockpiling.
Regional arbitrage toward Indian rice limits how far Asian export prices can rise, though El Niño risk keeps the near-term bias firm.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.