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AGF Nitrogen has shut one production line in France and is running another intermittently as European gas prices topped €100/MWh, with the company warning more capacity could close within weeks. Its plants are operating at 80-85% of capacity, and it is replacing domestic ammonia with imports at seaport sites.
Farmer fertilizer purchases and industrial ammonia use have fallen sharply.
Lost European nitrogen output tightens regional urea and ammonia supply, supporting fertilizer prices, while high gas costs keep the marginal production cost elevated. Weak farm demand partly offsets the supply cut.
ukragroconsult.comNov 5, 2026After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
