
The wheat complex closed lower across Chicago SRW, KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat on Tuesday, with losses of 11 to 18 cents. Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada took effect, and China set a 15% tariff on US wheat.
A USDA private sale of 130,000 MT of white wheat to South Korea was reported.
China's tariff on US wheat cuts a key export outlet and adds downside pressure on US wheat futures, partly offset by the Korean sale.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.