Fertilizer prices reached levels not seen since 2008-09, driven by European gas-driven ammonia cutbacks, Chinese coal rationing, and Hurricane Ida disruptions. China suspended fertilizer exports until June 2022 and Russia restricted nitrogen and phosphate exports from December 1, 2021.
China accounts for about one-third of global DAP trade and one-tenth of urea trade, so export curbs tighten global supply and lift phosphate and nitrogen prices, adding to food inflation pressure.
After 176 past bullish trade events, UREA moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Chinese fertilizer export suspension through June 2022 and Russian phosphate export restrictions starting December 1 tighten global DAP supply, a direct trade-flow driver of the price jump on 2021-11-26.