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The U.S. has declined to renew the USMCA, though the agreement is not officially canceled and a 10-year review period follows. Oklahoma analysts warn that wheat, corn, milo and oilseed exports to Mexico, the state's largest market for these crops, could be disrupted, and that cattle trade is also exposed while the southern border remains closed to live cattle over New World screwworm.
Uncertainty over USMCA access for US grain and feed exports to Mexico and Canada could weigh on US corn, wheat and sorghum demand and basis, while cattle trade uncertainty adds caution among producers.
spiltoponlinedk.comGov. Deandrea McKenzieNov 4, 2026After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
