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The Philippine weather bureau PAGASA said a very strong El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures about 2.5°C above normal from August to October. It is expected to peak before the end of 2026 and persist into the first quarter of 2027.
As of October 31, five provinces were in meteorological drought and 21 more were in dry-spell or dry conditions.
Prolonged dry spells and drought in the Philippines and across Southeast Asia threaten rice and corn yields and raise the chance of import demand. This supports higher regional rice and feed grain prices.
bworldonline.comCEDTyCleaNov 4, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
