
Bank Woori Saudara analyst Rully Nova said the rupiah opened 98 points stronger at Rp18,070 per US dollar, from a prior close of Rp18,168, driven by Democratic Party gains in the US midterm elections. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 10.1 basis points to 4.86%, the dollar index dropped to 101.3, and Brent fell more than 8% to around $95 a barrel.
A weaker dollar and lower oil prices reduce import costs for Indonesian feed buyers and can soften dollar-priced grain and meal markets. Oil weakness also reduces pressure on vegetable oil biofuel demand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.