USDA's October class and component prices, released November 4, showed Class IV rising $1.60 to $20.54 per cwt and Class II rising $1.55 to $19.15 per cwt. Class III fell 88 cents to $15.16 per cwt, widening the gap between the two classes to $5.38.
A wider Class III-IV spread reflects weaker cheese-based milk demand relative to butter and powder, which tends to pressure Class III milk prices. For feed buyers, lower Class III returns can weigh on dairy herd margins and dairy feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.