CBOT soybeans fell as the US harvest neared completion at 88%, with soybean output expected to be a record. Domestic soymeal fell on weak costs and soft downstream buying, while Chinese soymeal inventories rose more than 20% year on year; palm oil slid to a one-month low on rising Malaysian stocks.
Record US soybean output, rising Chinese meal stocks and a slump in palm oil point to ample supply and bearish pressure on soymeal, soybean oil and palm oil prices.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.