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Malaysian palm oil futures briefly touched a record 5,700 ringgit per tonne on Monday before profit-taking. Traders were pricing in reduced supply from Indonesia, the top producer and exporter, after a rule change.
Indonesia's export restrictions cut expected palm supply to the world market, lifting prices and making palm the costliest major edible oil. Buyers face higher costs and possible substitution to soy and sunflower oil.
reuters.comJan 31, 2022After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record-high palm futures on 31 Jan on reduced Indonesian supply expectations sit immediately before the 1 Feb move and show the same supply-driven momentum.
