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Oil recovered strongly in the last week of April 2020 as OPEC+ production cuts began and more countries moved to reopen. OPEC output rose 1.73m b/d in April, mainly from Saudi Arabia, which pointed to a price war among key members.
Weak macro data, including an ISM manufacturing reading of 41.5, pointed to downward pressure on prices.
Oil-specific supply cuts support near-term crude prices, but weak global demand and OPEC output increases cap the rally and keep energy costs volatile for feed producers.
emiratesnbdresearch.comMay 3, 2020After 438 past bullish policy events, WTI moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, BRENT moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the late-April recovery as OPEC+ cuts began and reopening started, a supply and demand rebound that drove the 5-day rise from the depressed base.
