OPEC+ leaders, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, urged members in a video conference on August 19 to stick to planned output cuts. The draft communique warned that the recovery could be undermined by a prolonged second wave of Covid-19.
Pressure to keep cuts in place and the stated concern about demand risks point to firm crude prices, with laggard compliance the key swing factor.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.