
OPEC+ was set to review compliance with its oil cuts on August 19, with sources expecting no change to the 7.7 million bpd target. Overall July compliance was put at 95% to 97%, with Iraq, Nigeria and Kazakhstan under scrutiny.
Expectations of no policy change keep supply restrained, which is mildly supportive for crude and energy-linked costs.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.