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Corn, soybean and wheat futures faded from early gains and traded near session lows as markets adopted a risk-off stance, with crude oil more than $2 lower. Russia plans a stronger wheat export tax formula that rises at $375 and $400 per metric ton.
A tighter Russian export tax formula can reduce Black Sea wheat export flows and support world wheat prices. Broad risk-off selling pressures grain futures in the near term.
profarmer.comBrian GreteDec 20, 2021After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Dec 20 grains faded from early gains into a risk-off session with crude oil down more than $2, which weakens corn's ethanol demand outlook and adds to selling pressure.
