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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reviews natural gas price movements at the end of 2018. It notes that record 2018 production and rising demand produced sharp price swings, with prices rising in the fourth quarter.
Record output has been offset by strong demand, so prices have been volatile rather than trending down. The piece is a retrospective data commentary with no new supply shock.
After 40 past neutral report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.8%), and +4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.