The EIA's January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Henry Hub spot prices to fall about 2% to just under $3.50/MMBtu in 2026. Prices are then projected to rise about 33% in 2027 as LNG export demand outpaces supply growth.
The forecast is based on the January 14 outlook.
A slight 2026 price decline points to a stable US gas cost base for feed and fertilizer producers, while the 2027 rise signals higher costs ahead. Export demand growth from new LNG plants is the key driver to watch.
After 40 past neutral report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.8%), and +4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.