El Niño brings excess rain to the South and drought risk to the Amazon, with crop effects through 2027

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 10, 2026Drought Grows South, Rain Helping Northward Through Next Week-0.9%
• Feb 23, 2023El Niño expected to bring “normal” wheat crop in Australia - Fastmarkets-3.0%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+1.4%
• Sep 22, 2020Drought hampering Black Sea crop sowing sparks light in wheat prices | The Land | NSW+5.6%
• Nov 21, 2022South America Drought Woes Continue Despite Rain+0.2%

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 8, 2025The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States | September 8, 2025 | Drought.gov-0.1%
• Jun 8, 2023Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb+3.5%
• Oct 14, 2026El Niño puts Panama Canal capacity and grain shipments at risk in 2027 | World Ports Organization-1.8%
• Oct 6, 2018How to prepare for an El Niño winter | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast-0.3%
• Aug 10, 2017How will summer drought and this fall’s corn crop affect feeder cattle-4.5%