
Economists and strategists at major financial institutions said the real's post-election depreciation was exaggerated and would likely be partly reversed if public accounts are adjusted. The dollar rose 9.04% against the real in the first week after the election, its largest weekly gain since October 2008.
Analysts also noted that a more conservative Congress could restrain a more expansionary fiscal agenda.
The sharp real depreciation raised import costs for Brazilian feed and grain buyers, and a partial reversal would ease those costs, but fiscal policy outcomes remain the key variable.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.