Brent at $103.60: the peace trade is selling paper, but the physical market just drew 5.3 million barrels

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Mar 24, 2026Traders bet $500 million on oil price just before Trump's post on delay to Iran attack | Reuters+15.1%
• Mar 10, 2026Chicago soy, grains retreat as technical selling unwinds crude-driven rally - Markets - Business Recorder+4.1%
• May 5, 2026Oil prices bounce off lows, as an Iran peace deal may be just a ‘structured pause’ - MarketWatch-9.6%
• Jun 24, 2019U.S. oil ends higher, but Brent falls as Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions - MarketWatch+2.2%
• Nov 26, 2024​Brent crude oil, silver and wheat prices drop on Middle East de-escalation​ | Levels to Watch | IG International-1.8%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Mar 10, 2026Chicago soy, grains retreat as technical selling unwinds crude-driven rally - Markets - Business Recorder-1.3%
• May 5, 2026Oil prices bounce off lows, as an Iran peace deal may be just a ‘structured pause’ - MarketWatch-7.6%
• Apr 24, 2019Oil falls as supply still adequate despite Iran sanctions, but market tightening - CNBC TV18-3.6%
• Oct 29, 2026Brent crude falls below $115, WTI near $101 as US-Iran peace hopes offset fears of growing Middle East conflict-2.3%
• Apr 2, 2018Oil falls as geopolitical anxiety 'comes racing out of the market'-4.4%