European gas rises as U.S. midterms and stalled Hormuz talks cloud outlook

After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Jul 1, 2026European Natural Gas Edges Higher as Traders Monitor Hormuz Risk-4.1%
• Dec 17, 2024Global natural gas market outlook: European supply challenges and regional demand dynamics+7.0%
• Jun 30, 2020TTF gas prices | European Gas Hub+7.6%
• Aug 26, 2022US LNG export terminals stage production push as European gas prices top $100/MMBtu | S&P Global-1.1%
• Apr 1, 2017Gas prices will rise and there's not much we can do to stop it+2.7%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Dec 14, 2023U.S. crude oil rises 3% on weaker dollar, slightly improved 2024 demand outlook+8.4%
• Jun 19, 2019Commodities outlook: It's all action as Fed decides+4.6%
• May 23, 2023ASX falls on stalled US debt ceiling talks, CBA lifts mortgage rates again, NZ's Reserve Bank raises rates for 12th time — as it happened - ABC News-3.2%
• Aug 24, 2021Crude oil futures extend gains after overnight vault as outlook improves | S&P Global+5.7%
• Feb 1, 2019Oil rises on strong US jobs data and falling rig count-1.4%

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Dec 14, 2023U.S. crude oil rises 3% on weaker dollar, slightly improved 2024 demand outlook+6.9%
• Jun 19, 2019Commodities outlook: It's all action as Fed decides+7.1%
• Feb 19, 2020Canadian dollar gains as oil rallies on Chinese stimulus hopes - The Globe and Mail-4.3%
• Apr 21, 2022Canadian dollar adds to recent gains on hawkish BoC outlook - The Globe and Mail-0.6%
• Aug 11, 2022Canadian dollar rises to two-month high on growing signs of easing U.S. inflation - The Globe and Mail-4.1%