U.S. natural gas prices have roughly doubled over six months, reaching $5 per million BTUs in September, the highest September price since 2008. The surge followed disruption from Hurricane Ida, a hot summer boosting demand, and low storage levels as supply lagged.
Higher gas prices lift costs for fertilizer, chemicals and power, and low storage raises the risk of further winter price spikes. Rising energy and fertilizer costs support feed input prices.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.