
European gas storage has fallen to a 10-year low as the winter heating season approaches. The storage was drawn down last winter due to strong demand and weak renewables generation, with strong underlying power demand.
Low European gas storage increases the risk of supply shortfalls and fuels competition for LNG cargoes, supporting global gas and nitrogen fertilizer prices. Higher fertilizer and energy costs put upward pressure on feed production costs.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record-low European gas storage raised gas prices, the key nitrogen input, which tightened European ammonia and urea supply.