US crude had its largest one-day loss in over four years after President Trump announced new 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese imports. Oil prices had earlier been supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and a large US inventory draw.
Natural gas prices also fell to a 38-month low.
New tariffs on Chinese imports threaten global demand and Chinese purchases of US farm goods, weighing on soybean and feed-grain prices. Lower crude also reduces diesel and freight costs.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 24 past bearish trade events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -4.5% to +7.3%), and -1.2% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.