Illinois farmers report corn yields well below USDA's latest projections, with some saying they are 20 to 30 bushels per acre lower than last year. USDA nonetheless raised its national corn yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre, lifting production to 16.03 billion bushels, the second-largest crop on record.
Large USDA production and stock estimates keep pressure on corn prices, which have fallen about 50 cents since the reports. If field yields in key states like Illinois prove weaker, the government's bearish numbers could be revised, supporting feed grain prices later.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.