
The USDA July Supply/Demand report left US corn and soybean yield estimates unchanged, with corn at 178.6 bu/acre and soybeans at 49.8 bu/acre. Old-crop corn ending stocks came in above trade expectations at 2.24 billion bushels, and 2020/21 corn ending stocks were 2.64 billion versus the trade's 2.73 billion.
Burdensome corn stocks, with 2020/21 ending stocks below trade estimates, signal ample feed grain supply and pressure corn prices. Soybean yields near expectations leave soybean prices with little fresh direction.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.