
JPMorgan closed its long offshore yuan position after the People's Bank of China cut the cost of buying dollar forwards to tame the yuan's rally. The PBOC said it would cut risk reserves from 20% to zero.
A PBOC move to weaken the yuan can dampen Chinese import purchasing power for farm goods, a mildly bearish factor for soybean and meal prices.
After 31 past bullish policy events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The PBOC's cut to the cost of buying dollar forwards led JPMorgan to take profit on its long yuan position, which reduced yuan demand and reversed the rally.