
Chicago soybean futures jumped as much as 3.2% on Monday to a fresh 17-month high after President Trump said China is in the process of buying soybeans and that purchases could begin before spring. Trump's comments on Air Force One were the trigger for the rally.
Expected Chinese demand for US beans supports soybean and soymeal prices, while the lack of confirmed purchases leaves the rally vulnerable to reversal.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.