
Oil World said China has to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans. It forecast China would import 15 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in October 2018 to March 2019 even if the trade war is not resolved.
The forecast is based on a South American supply shortage.
A forecast of large Chinese purchases would support U.S. soybean export demand and prices. Tight South American supplies strengthen the case for a return to U.S. origin.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.