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Wheat futures slid to test key support in Chicago, London and Paris after Russia confirmed it will attend US-mediated tripartite peace talks with Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11. Corn also fell, with Paris futures dropping through their 100-day moving average.
Hopes of ending the Black Sea shipping disruption are removing risk premium from wheat, where Russia and Ukraine supply nearly 30% of world exports. Traders doubt the talks will change much, so a pullback in prices could reverse if shipments stay curtailed.
crmagri.comMike VerdinNov 3, 2026After 78 past bearish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 86 past bearish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
