
Natural gas prices fell 1.4% on December 24, 2019, after a 5.5% drop the previous day, closing at their lowest since August. Warmer-than-normal weather was forecast for most of the East Coast over the next 6 to 14 days.
EIA data showed total supply flat week over week.
Expected warm weather should reduce demand and turn inventory draws upward, supporting a bearish near-term price outlook. Technical sell signals point to further downside unless colder weather returns.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.