
Natural gas futures settled at $3.618/mmBtu on Friday, lower for the week after failing to hold an early spike above $4. Warmer-than-normal mid-January forecasts reduced expected heating demand, while a 38 Bcf storage withdrawal came in below expectations.
Record LNG feedgas flows and high production limited upside.
Weaker heating demand and a looser storage balance outweigh strong LNG export demand in the near term. Prices stay vulnerable until weather turns colder.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Prices failed to hold an early spike above $4 as mild mid-January forecasts and a bearish storage draw weighed, with high production limiting upside.