
Deral reports that excess rain in Paraná has waterlogged soils, reduced light and kept temperatures low, causing emergence failures and slow early growth in soybeans. Winter crops including wheat, barley and oats have seen lower yields and grain quality, and storms and hail have caused partial and total losses in some areas.
Lower wheat quality and possible soybean stand losses in a key southern state add to the upside risk for domestic Brazilian wheat and soybean supply, and may tighten feed grain availability.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.