The USDA's first assessment of the 2027 US winter wheat harvest rated 44% of the crop good or excellent across 18 states. Individual states ranged from 25% in Oklahoma and Washington to 85% in California.
The rating came in well below the roughly 50% analysts expected in a Reuters poll, pointing to weaker-than-expected crop prospects for HRW wheat, which could support wheat prices and feed-grain substitution costs.
After 180 past bullish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 56 past neutral report events, WTI moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.