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Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (ICAR) cut its total 2026/27 grain export forecast to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million, with wheat trimmed to 39.5 million from 42 million. Under its stress scenario, however, ICAR raised the total grain export estimate to 36.5 million tonnes from 35 million, and wheat to 30 million from 29 million.
A lower base forecast trims expected Russian supply to world buyers, but the higher stress-case figure shows exports are holding up despite logistics and shipping difficulties. Net effect is mildly supportive for wheat prices and for feed grain importers relying on Black Sea origin.
rawmart.ruФинмаркетNov 3, 2026After 431 past bullish trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
