
According to the Mato Grosso agricultural economics institute Imea, the Ptax dollar averaged R$5.39 for the week, up 7.15% week on week, after the second round of presidential elections disappointed investors' fiscal expectations. Mato Grosso also saw soybean processing advance, higher arroba cattle prices, and growing Brazilian poultry and pork exports.
A sharp rise in the real-dollar rate makes Brazilian soybeans and other exports more competitive abroad and supports domestic soybean prices. Political risk and currency weakness can also raise imported feed costs for Brazilian buyers.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.