
Torrential rains in India and Nepal, along with drought in South America, are being linked to an exceptionally strong El Niño. Cyclone flooding in southeastern India forced nearly 100,000 people to evacuate, and Bolivia declared a state of emergency after drought affected 78,000 families and killed more than 75,000 cattle.
Drought losses in Bolivia and disrupted rice harvests in India tighten regional feed and food supply, while the World Bank's forecast of an 18% food price rise next year supports firmer grain and rice prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.