Argentina's country risk breaks 800-point ceiling ahead of US election

After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real Under Pressure Ahead of Election-3.5%
• Jun 28, 2018How a Rising U.S. Dollar Puts Argentina's and Brazil's Economies at Risk+1.8%
• May 15, 2018Brazil's real continues its slump amid election uncertainty | AP News+2.4%
• Apr 20, 2018BRL: Growing presidential election risks spells more downside trouble - ING — Octa+2.8%
• Jul 29, 2026Rabobank flags BRL downside as rate differentials narrow and fiscal risks rise ahead of 2026 elections - VT Markets-0.0%

After 73 past neutral macro events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.

• Jul 25, 2023Argentine IMF concessions risk further fueling red hot inflation+0.7%
• Apr 22, 2025Argentina's surprise peso strength tempers fears of inflation comeback | Reuters-2.2%
• Jul 26, 2019Volatility Is Back in Argentina as Election Jitters Take Toll - Bloomberg-3.5%
• Aug 2, 2022Argentina’s Cash Needed to Avert Devaluation is Drying Up+1.9%
• Dec 10, 2020Brazil's real jumps after central bank hints at end of easing cycle | Financial Post+2.6%